Cheaper Beans, Busier Ships

After hitting multi-year highs in September, US soybean futures have trended lower over the past month, returning to levels last seen in the middle of August. The recent decline has been largely fuelled by rising global supplies, which have offset robust demand. The slide may not be fully complete yet, as the world’s leading producers are set for record crops in the 2026/27 season. While the market may remain under pressure, as is often the case, headwinds for commodity prices do not necessarily signal a bearish outlook for dry bulk freight rates, as volumes rather than values decide freight demand.

According to the latest estimates from the USDA, the US soybean harvest is expected to reach a record 4.56 billion bushels. The latest reading was 27 million bushels higher than the preceding estimate, reflecting a higher yield, and, with the harvest nearly 80 per cent complete by late October, the final figure is unlikely to deviate much from it. Weekly export inspections have also risen sharply, to nearly 2.5 million tonnes during each of the past two weeks, highlighting the strength of global demand. The USDA also raised its export forecast by 10 million bushels to nearly 1.7 billion bushels.

US soybean futures reached a multi-year high in mid-September amid robust demand and concerns over supplies. However, since then, an increasingly upbeat outlook for the US harvest has weighed on prices, with January CBOT futures shedding around ten per cent.

This story was originally published by Breakwave Advisors. Read the full story at Breakwave Advisors →