Dry Bulk Market: Escalating Attacks Heighten Uncertainty

"Geopolitical disruptions continue to cloud the dry bulk market outlook. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the largest source of uncertainty, while attacks on ships and port infrastructure in the Black Sea have added another layer of risk,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.

Typically, around 4% of dry bulk demand sails via the Strait of Hormuz. Alternative routes have softened the impact of the disruption but have been unable to replace pre-war volumes. The disruption has also tightened energy and fertiliser supplies, weighing on global economic growth and raising concerns over food security.

Given the uncertainty, BIMCO presents two forecast scenarios. The “SoH closed” scenario assumes that the strait remains effectively closed throughout 2027 and 2028, while the “SoH open” scenario assumes that ships can freely transit the strait from 2027 onwards.

“We expect the dry bulk supply/demand balance to gradually weaken in 2027 and 2028, although from a high baseline. Cargo volume growth is expected to be limited, while ship deliveries accelerate, particularly in the capesize segment,” says Gouveia.

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