Trucking Market: Why Is It Flat Despite 12.8% Rejection?

The latest SONAR data shows truckload rejections at 12.8%, double last year’s rate, yet the market feels unexpectedly soft. We break down why the usual peak season momentum is missing and what that means for freight rates, volumes, and capacity as we head into Thanksgiving and year-end. Plus, a look at how a strong El Niño could disrupt refrigerated freight this winter.

Truckload tender rejections are holding near 12.8% — roughly double the 6% recorded at the same point last year — but the market is showing little of the tightening momentum typically expected ahead of peak season, according to FreightWaves data analysts Julie Van de Kamp and Craig Fuller. The flatness is raising questions about whether the freight market can sustain a meaningful holiday surge and what it signals for 2027 contract rates.

The overall tender rejection index has barely moved in recent weeks, slipping only about 1 percentage point over the last 20 days. “I would like to see a little bit more heat, a little bit more pressure — that would tell us that this market is going to be strong in ’27,” Van de Kamp said. “We’re not seeing it yet.”

On the demand side, there are some early encouraging signs. November’s Outbound Tender Volume Index is averaging 11,434, up 12% from November last year and up roughly 3% from October, Fuller noted — the first meaningful demand build the market has seen heading into the holidays.

This story was originally published by FreightWaves. Read the full story at FreightWaves →