Bimco forecasts moderate growth in the bulk segment

The bulk cargo maritime transport sector may experience limited growth in the coming years, depending on the evolution of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Bimco estimates. The analysis indicates that “demand will grow by up to 1% in 2026 and between 0.5% and 1.5% in 2027, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed indefinitely”. On the other hand, in a reopening scenario, the growth projection rises to between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2026 and between 2% and 3% in 2027.

In the prolonged closure scenario, “a stagnation in cargo volumes is expected during 2026 and 2027, with lower performance in shipments of grains and smaller loads, due to their greater dependence on this route”, in addition to prospects of lower agricultural supply linked to the increase in fertilizer prices.

Average transport distances would also vary. Under closed conditions, an increase of between 0% and 1% is estimated for 2026 and 2027, driven by a greater share of products with longer journeys, such as iron ore, grains and bauxite. In a reopening scenario, the increase would be slightly higher due to the better performance of certain load flows.

The report identifies additional factors that could affect demand. These include a possible return of maritime traffic to the Red Sea, which would reduce shipping distances by eliminating detours around the Cape of Good Hope. On the other hand, “the possible onset of El Niño around the second quarter of 2026 could limit Panama Canal crossings” due to lower water levels, leading to detours and longer journeys.

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Bimco forecasts that iron ore shipments will remain stagnant in 2026 and grow between 0.5% and 1.5% in 2027, in a scenario in which the Taiwan Strait remains closed. This performance would be influenced by factors such as the evolution of demand for steel, especially in China, and the expansion of supply from exporting countries such as Australia, Brazil and West African nations.

In relation to coal, growth of up to 1% is projected in 2026 and between 0.5% and 1.5% in 2027, if the strait remains closed. If it reopens, these numbers could decrease. The report notes that “lower availability of liquefied natural gas could drive a shift to coal in some markets,” although demand in countries like China and India has trended downward this year.

In the grains sector, growth of between 3% and 4% is projected in 2026, followed by a contraction in 2027 in the Strait closure scenario. On the other hand, the reopening of the strait could boost growth to between 7% and 8% in 2026. Factors such as fertilizer availability, weather conditions and agricultural productivity influence these projections.

In relation to smaller bulk cargo, a drop of between 1% and 2% is estimated for 2026 if the closure continues, while in an alternative scenario, they could register greater growth. These products, including fertilizers, sulfur and aluminum, are highly vulnerable to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of these flows pass.